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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still