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China has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.